2
Liberate
4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 70
Kempton · Racing TV Fillies' Handicap · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Chepstow | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Brighton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Newmarket | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA66 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA66 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | BHA68 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -9.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/04/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 08/05/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 79% | +0.32 |
| 28/07/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |