6

Lady Of Lucca

2yo Filly · 9-2

Kempton · Unibet/EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed some promise first time up when staying on for third in 6-runner novice at Lingfield (6f) in August but was again no better than midfield when fifth over same C&D 2 weeks ago. Best watched until tackling low-grade nurseries.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 25/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f1y Std 12825/0844 @ Lingfield 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 6f1y Std 12810/094projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Lingfield45th5th0
2026-08-25Lingfield43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength77%

Delivery trend -4.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/08/20263rd40/10%60%+0.60
10/09/20265th40/10%56%+0.56