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8

Mistral Madness

2yo Filly · 9-2

Kempton · Unibet/EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Half-sister to several winners, including 7f/1m winner Key Witness and winner up to 1m Panama Red, both useful. Dam, runner-up at 1¼m-1½m, half-sister to smart 7.4f-12.4f winner Great House. Big prices and limited short-term promise in pair of novice events to date.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f12y Gd 12529/0844 @ Kempton 14/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f Sta 12814/094projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Kempton47th7th0
2026-08-29Windsor45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -35.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/08/20265th66/10%50%+0.50
14/09/20267th66/10%14%+0.14