3
Bill Plumb
7yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 65
Kempton · Industry Leading In-Play Markets At Unibet Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
54%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength57%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Southwell | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Yarmouth | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength7%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 82% | +0.21 |
| 11/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 20/02/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 17/08/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/09/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |