4

Black Endeavour

3yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 65

Kempton · Industry Leading In-Play Markets At Unibet Handicap · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Resumed winning ways at Doncaster (6f) in June (form worked out well). Got back on track on just second all-weather start when beaten 2 lengths into fourth at Southwell before failing to back that up on turf 12 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength58%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 69 · 7f3y GS 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 69 par16/095OR 695 @ Kempton 01/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 69 · 7f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/04/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Haydock 25/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 68 · 6f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 68 par25/045OR 685 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 66 · 6f2y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 66 par6 @ Doncaster 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 65 · 6f2y GF 135 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 65 par26/066OR 655 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 69 · 6f GF 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 69 · 6f212y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 69 par8/085OR 695 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 68 · 7f15y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Salisbury 11/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 68 · 6f Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 68 par11/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Salisbury512th11th+1
2026-09-03Southwell54th3rd+1
2026-08-08Haydock57th6th+1
2026-07-09Newbury56th5th+1
2026-06-26Doncaster61st1st0
2026-05-16Doncaster53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0916/058/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20253rd9/153%71%+0.19
01/04/20266th22/10%17%+0.17
25/04/20265th11/271%60%-0.11
16/05/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
26/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
09/07/20266th9/276%55%-0.22
08/08/20267th17/255%14%-0.41
03/09/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
11/09/202612th14/126%0%-0.26