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10

Iconic Dawn

3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 57

Kempton · Industry Leading In-Play Markets At Unibet Handicap · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

First time cheekpieces and return to sprinting worked the oracle when getting off the mark at Lingfield 11 days ago. Up 6 lb but she did it decisively, so that may well be within range.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 05/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS5/0845 @ Lingfield 03/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 6f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Wolverhampton 16/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 6f20y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS16/0955 @ Lingfield 14/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 63 · 7f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 63 par5 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 60 · 6f213y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 60 par23/055OR 606 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m142y Std 128 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Ffos Las 04/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 54 · 7f80y Gd 125 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 54 par4/086OR 546 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 52 · 7f80y Gd 132 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Lingfield 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 51 · 6f1y Std 126 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 51 par12/096OR 51projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Lingfield61st1st0
2026-08-21Ffos Las64th4th0
2026-08-04Ffos Las64th4th0
2026-07-21Wolverhampton67th7th0
2026-05-23Salisbury511th10th+1
2025-10-14Lingfield514th13th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0814/104/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/08/202510th40/10%0%0.00
03/09/20253rd28/10%80%+0.80
16/09/20255th6/168%56%-0.13
14/10/202514th28/10%0%0.00
23/05/202611th50/10%23%+0.23
21/07/20267th20/10%33%+0.33
04/08/20264th28/10%57%+0.57
21/08/20264th4/179%73%-0.06
12/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24