Lahina Bay
6yo Mare · 9-7 · OR 58
Kempton · Industry Leading In-Play Markets At Unibet Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Windsor | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Windsor | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Salisbury | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Windsor | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 24/01/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |