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6

Methgal

4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 63

Kempton · Industry Leading In-Play Markets At Unibet Handicap · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dropped to 6f with blinkers reapplied and doubled his tally on second start for current yard at Windsor last month. Ran at least as well when second both starts since and while stall 10 isn't ideal, he should be a big factor again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength77%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA59 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 59 · 7f Yie 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 59 par15/0459OR 59BHA61 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 61 · 7f Gd 131 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 61 parBHA60 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 60 · 7f Goo 142 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 60 par31/0560OR 60BHA59 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 59 · 7f Yie 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 59 · 7f94y Goo 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 59 par30/0659OR 596 @ Yarmouth 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 58 · 7f3y GF 135 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Windsor 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 58 · 6f12y GF 135 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 58 par13/086OR 586 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 62 · 6f3y GS 136 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 62 · 5f212y Goo 138 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 62 par8/096OR 62projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick62nd2nd0
2026-08-30Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-08-13Windsor61st1st0
2026-07-28Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-06-30RoscommonBHA597th7th+0
2026-06-10LimerickBHA594th4th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0410/0613/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength95%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20262nd4/179%91%+0.12
04/05/20269th6/168%43%-0.26
31/05/202612th9/153%21%-0.31
10/06/20264th16/116%75%+0.59
30/06/20267th9/153%57%+0.05
28/07/20262nd6/594%88%-0.06
13/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
30/08/20262nd5/287%88%+0.01
08/09/20262nd6/492%88%-0.05