1

Nezeeh

5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 65

Kempton · Industry Leading In-Play Markets At Unibet Handicap · 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lost his way for Denis Hogan in Ireland and no show all 3 starts for current yard minus headgear.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today: 6
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA87 @ Dundalk 07/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 87 · 1m Std 129 · below its mark07/11/2025 · OR 87 par7/1187OR 87BHA87 @ Dundalk 26/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 87 · 6f Std 127 · below its mark26/11/2025 · OR 87 parBHA87 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 87 · 5f Sft 127 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 87 par28/0387OR 87BHA85 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 85 · 5f3y Sft 145 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 85 parBHA82 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 82 · 5f205y Gd 122 · below its mark27/04/2026 · OR 82 par27/0482OR 82BHA78 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 78 · 5f Yie 133 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Lingfield 06/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 71 · 5f6y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 71 par6/074OR 714 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 68 · 7f Sta 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Lingfield 25/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 67 · 1m1y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 67 par25/085OR 67projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-25Lingfield59th8th+1
2026-08-12Kempton410th8th+2
2026-07-06Lingfield48th6th+2
2026-05-16NavanBHA788th10th2
2026-04-27NaasBHA8212th15th2
2026-04-11BellewstownBHA859th12th3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/1111/046/0725/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 10-11 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength1%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/11/20256th66/10%17%+0.17
26/11/20259th50/10%0%0.00
28/03/202614th50/10%0%0.00
11/04/20269th22/10%11%+0.11
27/04/202612th66/10%0%0.00
16/05/20268th12/137%22%-0.15
06/07/20268th150/10%13%+0.13
12/08/202610th150/10%10%+0.10
25/08/20269th100/10%0%0.00