IvyArcIvyArc
3

Penfolds Grange

4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 64

Kempton · Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap · 7f

#9

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Still looking for a first handicap success but again not seen to best effect when finishing midfield in 14-runner C&D handicap 2 weeks ago, not for the first time shaping like a return to 1m was worth exploring. Still, not discounted for each-way purposes with a first-time visor reached for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 11/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 70 · 1m Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/12/2025 · OR 70 par11/125OR 705 @ Lingfield 29/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 68 · 1m2f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/01/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Kempton 25/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 67 · 1m Sta 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/02/2026 · OR 67 par25/025OR 675 @ Kempton 01/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 69 · 1m Sta 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Lingfield 28/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 69 · 1m2f Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 69 par28/045OR 695 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 68 · 1m Sta 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Epsom Downs 16/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 68 · 1m113y Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 68 par16/075OR 685 @ Lingfield 04/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 68 · 7f1y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Kempton 09/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 66 · 7f Sta 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 66 par9/095OR 66projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kempton58th7th+1
2026-08-04Lingfield57th6th+1
2026-07-16Epsom Downs59th8th+1
2026-05-27Kempton53rd2nd+1
2026-04-28Lingfield56th5th+1
2026-04-01Kempton52nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/121/0416/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/12/20255th25/10%50%+0.50
29/01/20264th16/116%63%+0.47
25/02/20262nd9/276%91%+0.15
01/04/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
28/04/20266th11/271%44%-0.27
27/05/20263rd9/153%85%+0.32
16/07/20269th6/168%0%-0.68
04/08/20267th16/116%40%+0.24
09/09/20268th16/116%46%+0.30