San Juanito
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 65
Kempton · Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 6.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kempton | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-06-29 | Kempton | 4 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
| 2026-06-11 | Nottingham | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-12-13 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-10-08 | Nottingham | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/05/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 19/09/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 08/10/2025 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 10% | +0.05 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 11/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/06/2026 | 13th | 80/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 12/08/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 09/09/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |