4

Whitesnake

4yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 62

Kempton · Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced sort who twice finished third behind subsequent winners prior to getting off the mark in an 11-runner handicap at Lingfield (1m) 5 weeks ago, slipping the field turning for home. Handicapper has reacted with a 7 lb rise but could still have more to offer now she's up and running.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength64%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 01/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 6f12y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS1/0954 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 6f Sta 137 · HIGHER CLASS4/0544 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 137 · HIGHER CLASS23/0546 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 57 · 6f16y Gd 132 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 57 par15/066OR 576 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 55 · 7f36y Std 131 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 55 par14/076OR 556 @ Lingfield 20/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 55 · 1m1y Std 130 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 55 par20/086OR 55projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Lingfield61st1st0
2026-07-14Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-06-15Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-05-23Salisbury47th5th+2
2026-05-04Kempton47th5th+2
2025-09-01Windsor54th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/094/0523/0515/0614/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/09/20254th22/10%50%+0.50
04/05/20267th125/10%40%+0.40
23/05/20267th100/10%45%+0.45
15/06/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40
14/07/20263rd20/10%75%+0.75
20/08/20261st12/137%100%+0.63