13
Manly Fireball
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 80
Kempton · Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Lingfield | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 92% | +0.05 |
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 28/04/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 88% | +0.82 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |