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10

Metal Merchant

6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 80

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap · 7f

#13

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Stopped the slide when fourth of 12 at Newcastle (1m) in July for his new yard but has twice failed to build on it over C&D and at Haydock. Handily weighted if back on his A-game though and worth a market check for shrewd yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 25/08/2024 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 98 · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2024 · OR 98 par25/082OR 982 @ Newbury 12/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 97 · 1m7y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/04/2025 · OR 97 par2 @ Ascot 10/05/2025 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 96 · 7f GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/05/2025 · OR 96 par10/052OR 962 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 20th of 21 · OR 93 · 1m Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 93 par3 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 90 · 7f Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 90 par22/053OR 902 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 87 · 7f14y Sta 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 87 par4 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 84 · 1m5y Sta 141 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 84 par25/074OR 844 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 83 · 7f Sta 133 · below its mark12/08/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 82 · 7f212y Sft 137 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 82 par5/094OR 82projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock49th9th0
2026-08-12Kempton49th9th0
2026-07-25Newcastle44th4th0
2026-06-27Newcastle214th12th+2
2026-05-22Goodwood313th12th+1
2026-03-28Doncaster220th18th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0828/0325/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength25%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/08/20249th7/163%38%-0.25
12/04/202510th13/266%31%-0.35
10/05/202512th11/142%31%-0.11
28/03/202620th50/10%5%+0.05
22/05/202613th20/10%8%+0.08
27/06/202614th50/10%0%0.00
25/07/20264th20/10%73%+0.73
12/08/20269th5/174%20%-0.54
05/09/20269th28/10%27%+0.27