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Physique

6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 84

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended long losing run at Newmarket (7f) in June. Back to form when fourth of 13 in handicap over C&D 19 days ago. Needs considering eased 1 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Sandown 12/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 85 · 7f Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 85 par12/093OR 853 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR 83 · 6f2y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 81 · 7f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 81 par16/043OR 814 @ Yarmouth 13/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 79 · 7f3y Sft 134 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Beverley 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 77 · 7f96y Goo 127 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 77 par30/054OR 774 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 77 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 77 par2 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 77 · 7f GF 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 77 par11/072OR 774 @ Newmarket 31/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 86 · 7f GF 136 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ Kempton 04/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 85 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 85 par4/094OR 85projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Kempton44th4th0
2026-07-31Newmarket47th7th0
2026-07-11Newmarket212th10th+2
2026-06-19Newmarket41st1st0
2026-05-30Beverley42nd2nd0
2026-05-13Yarmouth43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0913/0511/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength70%

Delivery trend +6.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20257th13/266%25%-0.41
29/03/202611th16/116%44%+0.29
16/04/202615th13/266%18%-0.48
13/05/20263rd7/163%67%+0.04
30/05/20262nd15/261%90%+0.29
19/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
11/07/202612th16/116%8%-0.07
31/07/20267th8/158%25%-0.33
04/09/20264th33/10%75%+0.75