5
Rogue Messiah
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 85
Kempton · Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Thirsk | 2 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-08-04 | Windsor | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 06/09/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 53% | -0.20 |
| 06/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 11% | -0.57 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |