Joseph
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 76
Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 219y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Kempton | 5 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 18/04/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 8% | +0.02 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/05/2026 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 8% | -0.40 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 78% | +0.73 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |