4
Qitaal
7yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 76
Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 219y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Chester | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength33%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |