1
Thinthread
4yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 82
Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 219y
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-07 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-08-12 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-08 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2024 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 27/05/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 19/06/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 08/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 87% | +0.16 |
| 12/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/08/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 30/08/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |