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Wardlaw

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 76

Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 219y

#4

Rank

Odds

15/8

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quirky sort who still looked a work in progress when gaining a first win at Beverley (1½m) in August. Backed it up with a good second of 7 in handicap at Thirsk (1½m, good to soft) 18 days ago, despite taken very wide in back straight. Likely capable of better still.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 18/09/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR - · 7f Sta 13018/0945 @ Newcastle 30/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f14y Std 1335 @ Kempton 15/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 1m Sta 13315/1055 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 71 · 1m3f99y Goo 132 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Lingfield 01/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 68 · 1m4f Std 126 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 68 par1/064OR 685 @ Sandown 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 68 · 1m6f Gd 129 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Doncaster 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 70 · 1m6f115y GF 135 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 70 par26/065OR 705 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 69 · 1m4f23y Goo 133 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 76 · 1m4f8y Goo 129 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 76 par5/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk42nd2nd0
2026-08-13Beverley51st2nd−1
2026-06-26Doncaster53rd4th−1
2026-06-12Sandown52nd3rd−1
2026-06-01Lingfield42nd2nd0
2026-05-18Windsor55th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0918/0526/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/202514th200/10%0%0.00
30/09/20255th150/10%0%0.00
15/10/20254th250/10%75%+0.75
18/05/20265th14/126%33%+0.07
01/06/20262nd17/255%75%+0.20
12/06/20262nd4/179%67%-0.12
26/06/20263rd1/195%0%-0.95
13/08/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
05/09/20262nd11/893%83%-0.09