7
What's The Plan
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 77
Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 219y
#5
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sandown | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/10/2025 | 20th | 40/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |