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2

Arundel

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65

Kempton · Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap · 1m 2f 219y

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A fair 1¼m winner in 2025. Returned from nearly a year-long absence with an encouraging third at Yarmouth (1¼m, good) 24 days ago, clear of rest. Big shout from the same mark with Billy Loughnane now up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength73%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 19/04/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 7f36y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS19/0446 @ Beverley 13/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 58 · 1m1f207y Goo 128 · beat its mark13/05/2025 · OR 58 par5 @ Pontefract 23/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 58 · 1m2f5y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2025 · OR 58 par23/055OR 585 @ Newmarket 19/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 62 · 1m2f GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 62 par5 @ Yarmouth 03/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 65 · 1m2f23y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2025 · OR 65 par3/085OR 656 @ Thirsk 15/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 65 · 1m4f8y Goo 132 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 65 par5 @ Newmarket 22/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 66 · 1m2f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 66 par22/085OR 665 @ Lingfield 13/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 67 · 1m4f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 65 · 1m2f23y GS 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 65 par30/085OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Yarmouth53rd2nd+1
2025-09-13Lingfield55th4th+1
2025-08-22Newmarket54th3rd+1
2025-08-15Thirsk62nd2nd0
2025-08-03Yarmouth52nd1st+1
2025-07-19Newmarket52nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0419/0722/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%

Delivery trend -6.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/04/20259th200/10%27%+0.27
13/05/20252nd5/174%88%+0.14
23/05/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
19/07/20252nd5/287%88%+0.01
03/08/20252nd11/893%80%-0.13
15/08/20252nd5/696%83%-0.12
22/08/20254th13/891%40%-0.51
13/09/20255th10/382%20%-0.62
30/08/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24