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5

Ghost Story

5yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 64

Kempton · Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap · 1m 2f 219y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Yet to score this season but holding her form well, not seen to ideal effect when fourth of 5 in handicap at Chepstow (1¼m, soft) 23 days ago. Merits consideration once more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength69%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 04/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m2f50y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2025 · OR 63 par4/065OR 636 @ Windsor 21/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 61 · 1m2f Sft 131 · beat its mark21/07/2025 · OR 61 par4 @ Yarmouth 17/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 68 · 1m3f104y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 68 par17/094OR 685 @ Doncaster 24/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 68 · 1m2f43y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Lingfield 30/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 68 · 1m2f Std 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 68 par30/045OR 685 @ Ffos Las 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 67 · 1m3f209y GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 66 · 1m4f51y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 66 par14/075OR 665 @ Kempton 10/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 65 · 1m2f219y Sta 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 65 · 1m2f Goo 135 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 65 par31/086OR 65projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Chepstow64th4th0
2026-08-10Kempton53rd2nd+1
2026-07-14Wolverhampton54th3rd+1
2026-06-04Ffos Las53rd2nd+1
2026-04-30Lingfield53rd2nd+1
2025-10-24Doncaster53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0624/1014/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -11.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/20256th18/15%38%+0.32
21/07/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
17/09/20252nd4/179%86%+0.07
24/10/20253rd15/261%83%+0.23
30/04/20263rd14/126%75%+0.49
04/06/20263rd7/491%60%-0.31
14/07/20264th6/168%63%-0.06
10/08/20263rd4/179%78%-0.01
31/08/20264th2/189%25%-0.64