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13

Maywedance

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 54

Kempton · Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap · 1m 2f 219y

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled her tally over 1½m here in May. Back on song in refitted cheekpieces when fifth of 12 in handicap over C&D 2 weeks ago, not ideally placed. Possibilities.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 23/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 57 · 1m1f104y Std 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/03/2026 · OR 57 par23/035OR 576 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m3f219y Sta 126 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m3f137y Gd 130 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 55 par4/056OR 556 @ Kempton 20/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 53 · 1m3f219y Sta 128 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Leicester 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 56 · 1m3f179y Goo 132 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 56 par13/066OR 565 @ Kempton 08/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 56 · 1m2f219y Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 56 par5 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 56 · 1m3f219y Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 56 par12/085OR 566 @ Lingfield 15/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 56 · 1m5f Std 131 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Kempton 09/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m2f219y Sta 135 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 55 par9/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kempton65th5th0
2026-08-15Lingfield68th8th0
2026-08-12Kempton55th4th+1
2026-07-08Kempton53rd2nd+1
2026-06-13Leicester63rd3rd0
2026-05-20Kempton61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0320/0512/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength76%

Delivery trend +4.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/03/20264th50/10%25%+0.25
08/04/202610th16/116%18%+0.02
04/05/20267th22/10%25%+0.25
20/05/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
13/06/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
08/07/20263rd22/10%67%+0.67
12/08/20265th20/10%56%+0.56
15/08/20268th20/10%13%+0.13
09/09/20265th22/10%64%+0.64