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14

Sir Patchy

6yo Gelding · 8-4 · OR 45

Kempton · Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap · 1m 2f 219y

#14

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Poor maiden who finished last of 8 in handicap at Lingfield (1½m, all weather) in April.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 09/08/2023 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 1m Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS9/0844 @ Kempton 23/08/2023 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 1m3f219y Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Lingfield 23/07/2024 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 54 · 1m4f Std 135 · beat its mark23/07/2024 · OR 54 par23/076OR 546 @ Lingfield 22/08/2024 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 48 · 1m1y Std 121 · beat its mark22/08/2024 · OR 48 par6 @ Kempton 01/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 45 · 1m Sta 121 · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 45 par1/106OR 456 @ Kempton 15/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 46 · 1m3f219y Sta 123 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 46 par6 @ Lingfield 27/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 46 · 1m2f Std 127 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 46 par27/106OR 466 @ Lingfield 03/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 46 · 1m5f Std 126 · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 46 par6 @ Lingfield 30/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 45 · 1m4f Std 117 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 45 par30/046OR 45projClass-projected finish: 14th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-30Lingfield68th8th0
2025-12-03Lingfield65th5th0
2025-10-27Lingfield68th8th0
2025-10-15Kempton63rd3rd0
2025-10-01Kempton62nd2nd0
2024-08-22Lingfield67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0822/0827/1030/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 12-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -9.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/202310th300/10%10%+0.10
23/08/20238th125/10%13%+0.13
23/07/20249th66/10%27%+0.27
22/08/20247th50/10%40%+0.40
01/10/20252nd40/10%89%+0.89
15/10/20253rd11/142%78%+0.36
27/10/20258th11/271%36%-0.35
03/12/20255th7/491%60%-0.31
30/04/20268th11/271%0%-0.71