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9

The Bay Warrior

8yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 59

Kempton · Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap · 1m 2f 219y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

75%

Place Prob

38%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Back on song with length second of 7 to Boston Run in handicap at Lingfield (1¼m, all-weather) 20 days ago. Not ruled out.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 17/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 66 · 1m3f219y Sta 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 66 par17/125OR 666 @ Lingfield 24/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 65 · 1m4f Std 138 · below its mark24/01/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Southwell 07/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 63 · 1m3f23y Std 136 · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 63 par7/026OR 634 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 61 · 1m4f Std 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 59 · 1m4f51y Std 135 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 59 par21/046OR 596 @ Southwell 30/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 59 · 1m3f23y Std 135 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Leicester 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 58 · 1m3f179y Goo 134 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 58 par13/066OR 586 @ Wolverhampton 28/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 59 · 2m120y Std 134 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Lingfield 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 58 · 1m2f Std 136 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 58 par3/096OR 58projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-06-28Wolverhampton67th7th0
2026-06-13Leicester62nd2nd0
2026-04-30Southwell64th4th0
2026-04-21Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-04-03Lingfield410th8th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/123/0413/063/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/12/20259th50/10%20%+0.20
24/01/20269th14/126%27%+0.01
07/02/20266th10/147%17%-0.31
03/04/202610th50/10%36%+0.36
21/04/20263rd7/282%67%-0.15
30/04/20264th11/486%57%-0.28
13/06/20262nd15/261%88%+0.27
28/06/20267th2/189%14%-0.75
03/09/20262nd13/266%83%+0.18