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Approval

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Listowel · McSweeney Brothers Maiden Hurdle · 2m

#11

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful Flat winner for Owen Burrows. Caught the eye on this qualifying run after 12 weeks off when third of 16 in maiden hurdle at Killarney (2m, good to soft) but looks the type to do better in handicaps.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength97%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +2.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 03/05/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 92 · 1m1f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2025 · OR 92 par3/052OR 922 @ Redcar 26/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 92 · 1m2f1y GF 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2025 · OR 92 par3 @ Sandown 13/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 91 · 1m1f209y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 91 par13/063OR 913 @ Windsor 30/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 89 · 1m2f GF 143 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/06/2025 · OR 89 par4 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m2f Goo 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 85 par19/094OR 854 @ Salisbury 02/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 83 · 1m1f201y Gd 140 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 83 parC8 @ Killarney 09/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 1669/05C8C8 @ Listowel 30/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 166C8 @ Killarney 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 16622/08C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Killarney?3rd3rd0
2026-05-30Listowel?5th5th0
2026-05-09Killarney?10th10th0
2025-10-02Salisbury45th0th+4
2025-09-19Newbury45th0th+4
2025-06-30Windsor36th0th+5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0530/069/0522/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 2084% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +19.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/202511th11/271%17%-0.54
26/05/20259th5/174%11%-0.63
13/06/20257th11/486%14%-0.71
30/06/20256th3/184%17%-0.68
19/09/20255th9/276%64%-0.13
02/10/20255th11/486%20%-0.66
09/05/202610th50/10%36%+0.36
30/05/20265th150/10%75%+0.75
22/08/20263rd28/10%87%+0.87