18
Faerie Tales
4yo Filly · 11-3
Listowel · McSweeney Brothers Maiden Hurdle · 2m
#15
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 10.2)
Highest class: BHA55
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Wexford | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Tramore | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Limerick | BHA55 | 12th | 9th | +3 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2024-09-17 | Punchestown | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2024-07-18 | Leopardstown | ? | 17th | 17th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2058% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%
Delivery trend +7.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 20. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2024 | 17th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/09/2024 | 13th | 250/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/06/2026 | 12th | 200/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 11/07/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 80/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |