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13

Love Me Tender

4yo Gelding · 11-10

Listowel · McSweeney Brothers Maiden Hurdle · 2m

#10

Rank

Odds

4/7

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sent off favourite and shaped encouragingly on his first outing since leaving Peter Schiergen (for €180,000) when tenth of 22 in the Ebor at York (1¾m, good to soft) last month, inexperience showing on just his fourth start yet sticking to his task. Of obvious interest now hurdling.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼7
Strength100%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.4
Today:
Class gap: +6.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Chantilly 27/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f207y Ver 125 · HIGHER CLASS27/10C12 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 22 · OR 96 · 1m5f188y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 96 par22/082OR 96projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York210th3rd+6
2025-10-27Chantilly?4th-5th+7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1022/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 2037% of fieldRange 21-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -74.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 20. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/20254th40/10%50%+0.50
22/08/202610th7/282%57%-0.24