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17

Omakase

8yo Mare · 11-5

Listowel · McSweeney Brothers Maiden Hurdle · 2m

#2

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

17%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Notched up a second career success on what was just her second race at 2m+ at Gowran back in May 2025. Ran well when third at Navan (13f, good) the following month and hasn't been seen since. Makes hurdling debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.6
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA54 @ Bellewstown 02/10/2024 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 54 · 7f205y Yie 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2024 · OR 54 par2/1054OR 54BHA54 @ Curragh 22/10/2024 · Pos 5th of 24 · OR 54 · 7f Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/10/2024 · OR 54 parBHA54 @ Dundalk 13/11/2024 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 54 · 1m2f150y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/11/2024 · OR 54 par13/1154OR 54BHA52 @ Dundalk 11/12/2024 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 52 · 1m2f150y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/12/2024 · OR 52 parBHA48 @ Dundalk 07/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 48 · 1m4f Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/02/2025 · OR 48 par7/0248OR 48BHA53 @ Dundalk 28/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 53 · 1m4f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/02/2025 · OR 53 parBHA54 @ Dundalk 28/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 54 · 2m Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2025 · OR 54 par28/0354OR 54BHA54 @ Gowran Park 21/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 54 · 2m100y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2025 · OR 54 parBHA60 @ Navan 07/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 60 · 1m5f Yie 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2025 · OR 60 par7/0660OR 60projClass-projected finish: 1st of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-06-07NavanBHA603rd1st+2
2025-05-21Gowran ParkBHA541st-2th+3
2025-03-28DundalkBHA545th2nd+3
2025-02-28DundalkBHA533rd0th+3
2025-02-07DundalkBHA481st-3th+3
2024-12-11DundalkBHA527th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1011/1228/037/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 2074% of fieldRange 11-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 20. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20244th33/10%67%+0.67
22/10/20245th10/147%83%+0.35
13/11/20245th9/153%67%+0.14
11/12/20247th10/147%40%-0.07
07/02/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
28/02/20253rd3/184%83%-0.01
28/03/20255th11/271%67%-0.04
21/05/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
07/06/20253rd5/174%89%+0.16