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8

Talking Tough

9yo Gelding · 11-12

Listowel · McSweeney Brothers Maiden Hurdle · 2m

#18

Rank

Odds

150/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#18

★ Timeform

Commentary

One-time fair Flat performer but out of sorts at present. Best watched on hurdling debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 9.1)

Highest class: BHA34
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: +3.4
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA43 @ Listowel 26/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 43 · 1m6f Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 43 par26/0943OR 43BHA43 @ Galway 27/10/2025 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 43 · 1m3f180y Hvy 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 43 parBHA40 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 40 · 1m5f80y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 40 par31/0540OR 40BHA40 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m5f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 40 · 1m2f96y Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 40 par20/0640OR 40BHA34 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 34 · 1m4f71y Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 34 parC8 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 34 · 1m1f135y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 34 par20/07C8OR 34BHA44 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 19 · OR 44 · 1m4f Yie 168 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 44 parBHA43 @ Clonmel 16/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 43 · 1m1f168y Yie 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 43 par16/0943OR 43projClass-projected finish: 12th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16ClonmelBHA4314th10th+4
2026-08-29CurraghBHA4415th11th+4
2026-07-20Ballinrobe?4th3rd+1
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA347th2nd+5
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA408th3rd+4
2026-06-07NavanBHA4010th5th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/097/0620/0716/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 2021% of fieldRange 10-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength28%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 20.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/09/202511th300/10%0%0.00
27/10/202515th100/10%18%+0.18
31/05/20266th200/10%0%0.00
07/06/202610th125/10%31%+0.31
20/06/20268th50/10%36%+0.36
02/07/20267th200/10%0%0.00
20/07/20264th150/10%63%+0.63
29/08/202615th250/10%22%+0.22
16/09/202614th40/10%0%0.00