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9

Thyer

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Listowel · McSweeney Brothers Maiden Hurdle · 2m

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful handicapper on Flat, again running well without quite proving strong enough in the finish to extend his run of in-frame efforts when fifth of 15 at Roscommon (1½m, good to soft) just over 3 weeks ago. Interesting hurdling debutant.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA83 @ Cork 10/09/2025 · Pos 20th of 20 · OR 83 · 6f Sft 144 · below its mark10/09/2025 · OR 83 par10/0983OR 83BHA82 @ Down Royal 29/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 82 · 1m4f194y Yie 142 · below its mark29/09/2025 · OR 82 parBHA80 @ Roscommon 13/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 80 · 7f111y Sft 140 · below its mark13/10/2025 · OR 80 par13/1080OR 80BHA78 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 20 · OR 78 · 7f Hvy 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 78 parBHA75 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 75 · 1m Gd 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 75 par26/0675OR 754 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m2f Gd 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 75 parBHA74 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 74 · 1m3f180y Yie 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 74 par1/0874OR 74BHA76 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 76 · 1m2f Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 76 parBHA79 @ Roscommon 31/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 79 · 1m4f17y Goo 139 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 79 par31/0879OR 79projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31RoscommonBHA795th5th+0
2026-08-16CurraghBHA762nd2nd+0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA743rd2nd+1
2026-07-05Ayr45th0th+4
2026-06-26CurraghBHA756th5th+1
2025-11-02CurraghBHA7810th10th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/092/111/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 2095% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength63%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 20.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/09/202520th28/10%0%0.00
29/09/202511th66/10%17%+0.17
13/10/202511th100/10%29%+0.29
02/11/202510th40/10%53%+0.53
26/06/20266th16/116%74%+0.58
05/07/20265th5/174%56%-0.18
01/08/20263rd14/126%87%+0.60
16/08/20262nd3/184%91%+0.07
31/08/20265th8/158%71%+0.14