10
Tyson Fury
9yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 115
Listowel · McSweeney Brothers Maiden Hurdle · 2m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Curragh | BHA86 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Kilbeggan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | BHA89 | 16th | 17th | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Killarney | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 20100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 20.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 93% | +0.24 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 93% | +0.09 |
| 03/06/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 6/5 | 94% | 44% | -0.49 |
| 16/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 27/07/2026 | 16th | 50/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 92% | -0.02 |
| 29/08/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 61% | +0.19 |