Columbus
5yo Gelding · 11-7
Listowel · Seamus Mulvaney Bookmaker Novice Hurdle · 2m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | York | 1 | 8th | 0th | +7 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 11th | 4th | +6 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Deauville | ? | 5th | -3th | +7 |
| 2025-07-13 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 4th | -4th | +7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/10/2024 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 13/06/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 13/07/2025 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 40% | -0.15 |
| 24/08/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 20/06/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |