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4

Golden Handshake

4yo Gelding · 11-5

Listowel · Seamus Mulvaney Bookmaker Novice Hurdle · 2m

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back-to-back winner on the Flat at around 1½m last summer for William Haggas, before failing to give his running on final 2 outings of the campaign. Closing on the leader when unseating rider on hurdle debut and gained compensation at Killarney (2m) subsequently. Remains potentially useful.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength85%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Yarmouth 01/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m3y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS1/0555 @ Nottingham 20/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m2f50y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS20/0555 @ Lingfield 18/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 1m3f133y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0654 @ Newbury 18/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 84 · 1m4f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 84 par18/074OR 842 @ York 23/08/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 88 · 1m5f188y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 88 par23/082OR 883 @ Ayr 18/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 88 · 1m5f26y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 88 par18/093OR 88C8 @ Killarney 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 16322/08C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Killarney?1st2nd−1
2026-08-01Galway?−1
2025-09-18Ayr35th0th+5
2025-08-23York211th4th+6
2025-07-18Newbury41st-3th+4
2025-06-18Lingfield51st-2th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0518/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength4%

Delivery trend -12.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/05/20259th20/10%27%+0.27
20/05/20252nd12/137%86%+0.49
18/06/20251st2/1199%100%+0.01
18/07/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
23/08/202511th15/261%9%-0.51
18/09/20255th5/287%20%-0.67
22/08/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05