2
Blue Reed
7yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 98
Listowel · Brandon Hotel Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 2f 135y
#6
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kilbeggan | BHA96 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Kilbeggan | BHA95 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Kilbeggan | BHA92 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Killarney | BHA92 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Cartmel | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kilbeggan | BHA87 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 2195% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 21. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 64% | +0.08 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 16/07/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.16 |