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10

Chemdawg

7yo Mare · 11-6 · OR 92

Listowel · Brandon Hotel Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 2f 135y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

74%

Place Prob

47%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a first hurdles success in handicap at Kilbeggan (19f) in April and has continued in good heart since, doubling her tally in mares event at the same course 20 days ago. Had the run of the race last time but she could be in the mix.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: BHA69
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA79 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 79 · 1m7f169y Yie 147 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 79 par20/1179OR 79BHA79 @ Clonmel 02/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 79 · 2m110y Hvy 147 · below its mark02/12/2025 · OR 79 parBHA80 @ Limerick 29/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 80 · 2m3f Sft 148 · below its mark29/12/2025 · OR 80 par29/1280OR 80BHA75 @ Limerick 31/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 75 · 2m5f70y Sft 140 · below its mark31/03/2026 · OR 75 parBHA77 @ Kilbeggan 24/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 77 · 2m3f50y Goo 145 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 77 par24/0477OR 77BHA85 @ Limerick 28/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 85 · 2m3f200y Sft 141 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 85 parBHA69 @ Limerick 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 69 · 1m4f70y Sft 129 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 69 par19/0669OR 69BHA85 @ Ballinrobe 10/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 85 · 2m109y Goo 141 · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 85 parBHA85 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 85 · 2m3f Goo 142 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 85 par3/0985OR 85projClass-projected finish: 1st of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03KilbegganBHA851st1st0
2026-08-10BallinrobeBHA855th5th0
2026-06-19LimerickBHA692nd2nd0
2026-05-28LimerickBHA852nd2nd0
2026-04-24KilbegganBHA771st1st0
2026-03-31LimerickBHA752nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1131/0319/063/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 2190% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength88%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 21. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/11/20253rd25/10%88%+0.88
02/12/20253rd11/271%87%+0.16
29/12/20254th6/168%75%+0.07
31/03/20262nd25/10%92%+0.92
24/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
28/05/20262nd3/184%88%+0.03
19/06/20262nd25/10%86%+0.86
10/08/20265th3/184%69%-0.15
03/09/20261st5/174%100%+0.26