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15

Crypto Crash

5yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 83

Listowel · Brandon Hotel Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 2f 135y

#11

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

With tongue strap added, recorded a first success under both codes when winning 15-runner handicap hurdle at Bellewstown (17f) last month by 2¾ lengths from Lunar Landscape. Task is now to build on latest effort.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 8.9)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Limerick 18/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 2m Hvy 16618/11C8C8 @ Clonmel 02/12/2025 · Pos 16th of 18 · OR - · 2m3f97y Hvy 158C8 @ Cork 07/12/2025 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR - · 2m200y Sft 1667/12C8BHA80 @ Down Royal 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 80 · 2m1f88y Gd 148 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 80 parBHA79 @ Clonmel 05/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 79 · 2m113y Goo 147 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 79 par5/0679OR 79BHA42 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 42 · 1m1f GF 124 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 42 parBHA40 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 40 · 1m3f103y Gd 122 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 40 par15/0740OR 40BHA40 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 40 · 2m Goo 126 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 40 parBHA76 @ Bellewstown 26/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 76 · 2m1f40y Goo 144 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 76 par26/0876OR 76projClass-projected finish: 9th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26BellewstownBHA761st1st0
2026-08-15TramoreBHA406th6th0
2026-08-03CorkBHA760
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA4013th13th0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA4210th10th0
2026-06-05ClonmelBHA799th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/114/0515/0726/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 2175% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 21. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/11/202510th100/10%31%+0.31
02/12/202516th250/10%12%+0.12
07/12/202514th200/10%28%+0.28
04/05/20266th40/10%74%+0.74
05/06/20269th8/158%43%-0.15
18/06/202610th33/10%31%+0.31
15/07/202613th28/10%14%+0.14
15/08/20266th28/10%55%+0.55
26/08/20261st20/10%100%+1.00