IvyArcIvyArc
8

Kazbek

6yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 94

Listowel · Brandon Hotel Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 2f 135y

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden but made the frame 3 times last season. However, pulled up on chasing debut to end the campaign and same result back over hurdles in handicap at Sligo (3¼m) in July. Others more persuasive back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Punchestown 03/05/2025 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR - · 2m Yie 1683/05C?C0 @ Wexford 28/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 2m4f Gd 168C8 @ Kilbeggan 16/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 2m Goo 16616/06C8C8 @ Wexford 04/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 2m4f170y Goo 166C8 @ Sligo 13/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 2m1f90y Gd 16613/07C8BHA93 @ Bellewstown 27/08/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 93 · 2m4f110y Gd 160 · below its mark27/08/2025 · OR 93 parC8 @ Limerick 18/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 90 · 2m3f Goo 166 · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 90 par18/10C8OR 90BHA94 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 94 · 2m4f Yie 150 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 94 parC8 @ Punchestown 12/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 94 · 2m3f73y Sft 150 · below its mark12/01/2026 · OR 94 par12/01C8OR 94projClass-projected finish: 6th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12SligoBHA950
2026-01-20Down RoyalBHA950
2026-01-12Punchestown?4th4th0
2025-12-14NavanBHA940
2025-11-20ThurlesBHA943rd3rd0
2025-10-18Limerick?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/054/0718/1012/01
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 2140% of fieldRange 6-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength34%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 21.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/202511th100/10%47%+0.47
28/05/20258th22/10%36%+0.36
16/06/20256th5/174%62%-0.12
04/07/20258th66/10%46%+0.46
13/07/20256th11/271%44%-0.27
27/08/202511th22/10%29%+0.29
18/10/20253rd9/153%78%+0.25
20/11/20253rd16/116%82%+0.66
12/01/20264th10/147%80%+0.33