20
Paul Collins
6yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 100
Listowel · Brandon Hotel Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 2f 135y
#14
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA102 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Kilbeggan | BHA103 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA105 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA105 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-12 | Punchestown | ? | 16th | 16th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 2155% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 21. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 25/10/2025 | 11th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 23/11/2025 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 21% | -0.15 |
| 12/01/2026 | 16th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 29/07/2026 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 68% | +0.68 |