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7yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 87

Listowel · Brandon Hotel Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 2f 135y

#15

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Stepped up markedly on his comeback run earlier in the year when staying on strongly to win handicap at Limerick (2m) in April. Tailed off making chasing debut at the same course next time, but he could yet do better reverted to hurdling after 4 months off.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 09/03/2024 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 2m Hvy 1669/03C8C8 @ Naas 04/04/2024 · Pos 13th of 19 · OR - · 2m Sft 166C8 @ Clonmel 18/04/2024 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR - · 2m76y Sft 15818/04C8BHA87 @ Punchestown 21/05/2024 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 87 · 2m Goo 153 · below its mark21/05/2024 · OR 87 parBHA87 @ Downpatrick 15/06/2024 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 87 · 2m5f180y Goo 167 · below its mark15/06/2024 · OR 87 par15/0687OR 87BHA87 @ Killarney 24/08/2024 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 87 · 2m4f50y Goo 153 · below its mark24/08/2024 · OR 87 parC8 @ Limerick 10/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 82 · 1m7f150y Hvy 142 · below its mark10/02/2026 · OR 82 par10/02C8OR 82BHA80 @ Limerick 16/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 80 · 2m50y Sft 150 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 80 parBHA87 @ Limerick 21/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 87 · 2m3f176y Goo 143 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 87 par21/0587OR 87projClass-projected finish: 13th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-21LimerickBHA879th9th0
2026-04-16LimerickBHA801st1st0
2026-02-10Limerick?4th4th0
2024-08-24KillarneyBHA876th6th0
2024-06-15DownpatrickBHA873rd3rd0
2024-05-21PunchestownBHA876th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0321/0510/0221/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish20th of 215% of fieldRange 10-21 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%

Delivery trend -8.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 20th of 21. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/03/202410th125/10%36%+0.36
04/04/202413th300/10%33%+0.33
18/04/202411th200/10%41%+0.41
21/05/20246th33/10%69%+0.69
15/06/20243rd12/137%86%+0.49
24/08/20246th9/153%62%+0.09
10/02/20264th5/174%57%-0.17
16/04/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
21/05/20269th4/179%20%-0.59