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5

Warm In Gorey

8yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 96

Listowel · Brandon Hotel Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 2f 135y

#13

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed at Wexford and Downpatrick on first 2 starts this season and soon left behind a lesser effort when sixth of 8 in claiming hurdle at Sligo in August, facing a stiff task at the weights. Back down to his last winning mark returned to handicap company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA100 @ Wexford 24/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 100 · 2m4f Gd 164 · below its mark24/07/2025 · OR 100 par24/07100OR 100BHA100 @ Cork 04/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 100 · 2m2f100y Goo 158 · below its mark04/08/2025 · OR 100 parBHA97 @ Killarney 21/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 97 · 2m4f180y Goo 153 · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 97 par21/0897OR 97BHA96 @ Ballinrobe 12/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 96 · 2m1f48y Sft 152 · below its mark12/09/2025 · OR 96 parBHA96 @ Killarney 05/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 96 · 2m1f Yie 142 · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 96 par5/1096OR 96C8 @ Wexford 27/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 102 · 2m1f Goo 152 · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 102 parBHA99 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 99 · 2m1f165y Gd 155 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 99 par13/0699OR 99BHA99 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 99 · 2m4f Gd 159 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 99 parC8 @ Sligo 06/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 97 · 2m1f193y Goo 152 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 97 par6/08C8OR 97projClass-projected finish: 14th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-06Sligo?6th6th0
2026-07-02LimerickBHA996th6th0
2026-06-13DownpatrickBHA993rd3rd0
2026-05-27Wexford?3rd3rd0
2026-04-10WexfordBHA920
2026-03-05ThurlesBHA940

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0712/0913/066/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 2115% of fieldRange 11-21 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength14%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 21.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20253rd7/282%71%-0.10
04/08/20252nd15/261%92%+0.31
21/08/20254th6/168%63%-0.06
12/09/20252nd9/276%91%+0.15
05/10/20253rd5/174%67%-0.07
27/05/20263rd10/147%75%+0.28
13/06/20263rd11/271%80%+0.09
02/07/20266th20/10%62%+0.62
06/08/20266th15/261%29%-0.32