13
Humble Brag
5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 103
Listowel · Devon Inn Dan Sheehan Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 3m
#10
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Cork | BHA95 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Wexford | BHA93 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-08 | Clonmel | BHA94 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Gowran Park | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Galway | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Tipperary | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 150/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 08/11/2025 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 08/01/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |