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Millstream Lady

8yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 130

Listowel · Devon Inn Dan Sheehan Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 3m

#4

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Likeable mare who added another 2 successes to her name last season, including a listed mares event. Entitled to be sharper for recent return and has often run well at this course/meeting in the past but remains on career-high mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA116 @ Limerick 26/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 116 · 2m4f Yie 166 · beat its mark26/12/2024 · OR 116 par26/12116OR 116BHA123 @ Naas 23/02/2025 · Pos 18th of 19 · OR 123 · 2m7f20y Sft 154 · below its mark23/02/2025 · OR 123 parBHA122 @ Limerick 10/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 122 · 2m5f60y Goo 168 · below its mark10/04/2025 · OR 122 par10/04122OR 122BHA120 @ Killarney 23/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 120 · 2m6f80y Goo 158 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 120 parBHA125 @ Listowel 27/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 125 · 2m4f Goo 159 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 125 par27/09125OR 1251 @ Limerick 18/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 125 · 2m6f180y Goo 149 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 125 par1 @ Punchestown 23/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 129 · 3m37y Sft 155 · beat its mark23/11/2025 · OR 129 par23/111OR 129BHA130 @ Leopardstown 28/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 130 · 2m7f80y Goo 160 · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 130 parBHA130 @ Killarney 22/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 130 · 2m6f80y Goo 164 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 130 par22/08130OR 130projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22KillarneyBHA13010th10th0
2025-12-28LeopardstownBHA1306th6th0
2025-11-23Punchestown12nd2nd0
2025-10-18Limerick11st1st0
2025-09-27ListowelBHA1253rd3rd0
2025-08-23KillarneyBHA1201st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1223/0823/1122/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength19%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/12/20241st9/153%100%+0.47
23/02/202518th22/10%6%+0.06
10/04/20255th4/179%43%-0.36
23/08/20251st28/10%100%+1.00
27/09/20253rd10/382%78%-0.05
18/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
23/11/20252nd6/168%88%+0.19
28/12/20256th15/261%71%+0.10
22/08/202610th20/10%31%+0.31