20
A Penny A Hundred
7yo Mare · 10-5 · OR 128
Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y
#12
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 12.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -5.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA125 | 2nd | 16th | −12 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | BHA127 | 7th | 21th | −12 |
| 2025-11-29 | Newbury | 1 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Cork | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Sligo | BHA132 | 4th | 19th | −12 |
| 2025-05-26 | Ballinrobe | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 2165% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength85%
Delivery trend +13.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 21. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 22/02/2025 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 17/04/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 26/05/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 86% | +0.44 |
| 01/10/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 02/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 29/11/2025 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 52% | +0.47 |
| 08/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 95% | +0.95 |