13
Ballygunner Castle
7yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 137
Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | 1 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Punchestown | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Naas | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | Punchestown | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-11 | Punchestown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-04-23 | Perth | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 2150% of fieldRange 8-21 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength28%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 21. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 18/01/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 13/02/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 06/04/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 23/04/2025 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 31% | -0.24 |
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 29/07/2026 | 18th | 10/1 | 47% | 19% | -0.28 |