10
Conyers Hill
8yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 139
Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Ballinrobe | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Gowran Park | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Limerick | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-15 | Cheltenham | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 2190% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 21. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 12/03/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 74% | +0.68 |
| 20/04/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 22/01/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 92% | +0.37 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 93% | +0.35 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 95% | +0.95 |