14
Doctor Ken
10yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 137
Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Kempton | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-12-21 | Lingfield | 3 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-11-24 | Kempton | 3 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-04-24 | Perth | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2024-11-25 | Kempton | 3 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2023-03-20 | Taunton | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2160% of fieldRange 17-21 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 21.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2022 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 05/11/2022 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 29/11/2022 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 20/03/2023 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 25/11/2024 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 24/04/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 24/11/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 21/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |