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Downmexicoway

7yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 144

Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y

#16

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Advanced his form sent chasing last season, scoring at Killarney and Gowran (handicap debut) prior to finishing fourth in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival despite meeting trouble on 2 occasions. Ran well despite errors when fifth in Galway Plate last time and should stay 3m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Down Royal 26/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m1f53y Goo 16226/12C81 @ Fairyhouse 06/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 134 · 2m Goo 158 · below its mark06/04/2025 · OR 134 par1 @ Galway 31/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 19 · OR 133 · 2m11y Goo 149 · below its mark31/07/2025 · OR 133 par31/071OR 133C0 @ Killarney 23/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 1661 @ Tipperary 05/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 2m3f160y Goo 1535/101BHA134 @ Gowran Park 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 134 · 2m Hvy 159 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 134 par1 @ Leopardstown 02/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 145 · 2m1f Sft 166 · below its mark02/02/2026 · OR 145 par2/021OR 1451 @ Cheltenham 10/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 23 · OR 145 · 2m4f44y GS 159 · below its mark10/03/2026 · OR 145 par1 @ Galway 29/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 22 · OR 143 · 2m6f111y Gd 156 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 143 par29/071OR 143projClass-projected finish: 8th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Galway15th5th0
2026-03-10Cheltenham14th4th0
2026-02-02Leopardstown13rd3rd0
2025-11-08Gowran ParkBHA1341st16th−12
2025-10-05Tipperary12nd2nd0
2025-08-23Killarney?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1223/082/0229/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 2155% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength90%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 21. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/12/20241st2/799%100%+0.02
06/04/20257th12/137%14%-0.23
31/07/202512th25/10%39%+0.39
23/08/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
05/10/20252nd3/184%75%-0.09
08/11/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
02/02/20263rd22/10%0%0.00
10/03/20264th9/153%86%+0.34
29/07/20265th9/153%81%+0.28