Jesse Evans
10yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 145
Listowel · Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 7f 180y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Listowel | BHA146 | 1st | 17th | −14 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Tipperary | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Sligo | BHA151 | 2nd | 19th | −14 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 21.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2025 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 95% | +0.43 |
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/07/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |